I think the answer to that question is Yes. A lot can happen over the next month and a half. But, lets assume for the moment that both Oregon and Michigan State run the table from here out. Not going to be easy (Oregon has tough games vs. Stanford and at Utah coming up plus a conference title game and Michigan State has Ohio State and a conference title game). But, lets say they do.
There are currently 3 SEC teams in the top 4...MSU, Alabama, and Auburn. All have a very hard schedule to finish out the season. MSU has to play Alabama and Ole Miss. Alabama has LSU, MSU, and Auburn. Auburn has Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama. Then a conference title game must be played. Plus, all these schools are in the SEC West. If more than 1 SEC West school gets in...guess what, there is a rematch potential. So, whomever said that didn't look at the schedule.
Here's my insanely bold prediction...only 1 SEC teams makes the playoff. Here is why, The SEC West is a battle ground and those major teams all play each other towards the end of the season. As crazy as it is, a loss later in the year is worse than early in the year. That division is going to have several key losses which push their teams down the polls late in the season. Whomever wins the SEC will make the playoff. My prediction: Alabama (I know that sounds crazy, but they roll LSU, outplay MSU and seek revenge against Auburn).
Florida State has a pretty soft schedule down the stretch. I've got a funny feeling that Louisville might beat them...but assuming they don't and FSU goes undefeated they are in.
That leaves 2 slots...and the teams looming are Oregon, Michigan State, Notre Dame and TCU (I leave Ole Miss and Georgia out because I think they get eaten by the SEC as only one team makes it out).
Assuming all these teams go undefeated the rest of the way (and all have a couple hard games remaining)...here is how I think it shakes out.
Oregon gets one of the remaining slots (not being biased here...I just think they do). Here is why. I think only a single loss to Arizona (who is potentially going to win the Pac-12 south and rematch Oregon in the conference title game)...they have a very strong resume. Especially when you factor in that they played Arizona with an offensive line that was decimated by injuries. Now that they have some key people back, they are a completely different team and that shows. I think the committee will be easier with that loss because they were missing several key starters when it happened...and that they are now a different team.
Notre Dame gets the final slot. They get get it...because they are Notre Dame. Their only loss is to FSU and it was highly questionable. Their schedule hasn't been bad, but I still think they get in with only losing to FSU.
That leaves Michigan State and TCU out of the playoff.
So, this is how I see the final 4:
1. Florida State
2. SEC Champion (I predict Alabama)
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
Outside of the SEC Champ (which could be one of several teams), I think that any loss by any of those other those teams will bounce them out of the playoff.
If Florida State, Oregon, or Notre Dame slip up...I think the following teams are on the cusp of replacing them. Assuming none of these teams lose, here are who I think will jump into the playoff with a loss from anyone above (in order):
5. Michigan State
6. TCU
7. SEC West #2
Unless BOTH Oregon and Notre Dame lose, I think there is rematch potential in the playoff. I think it is almost unavoidable with how this season has shaken out. With the playoff I have set up...FSU/ND rematch. If either FSU or ND drop a game and fall out of the playoff...that would put Michigan State in and a potential Oregon/Michigan State rematch. If a second SEC team sneaks in (both will probably be from the west) and that is another rematch.
With how things have worked out, I don't think the committee can avoid potential rematches. There are just too many at the top.
