draft speculation

[sliqwill]

since there are some folks on here who like to predict and such, i figured id toss this thought out there...


so the top 3 picks currently belong to Colts, Rams, and Vikings

the Rams and Vikings have made it known they want to trade out of their spots, but the Rams hold the leverage in this - or do they?

IF Manning remains on the Colts roster on the 8th, it could raise speculation that they would consider trading out their #1, so that pick would be targeted by Cleveland, Miami, and Washington (the big 3 in the QB market)...obviously this changes when Matt Flynn hits the market (i think March 12th)...if Flynn signs with one of the 'big 3' that leaves 2 teams really looking to move up to grab Luck and RG3...the Rams and Vikes have no need to grab a QB, so maybe Pick 4 becomes the spot to aim for?

Do you risk your draft to move into the top 3 to grab Luck or RG3?...itll cost next years first, this years first, and depending where that is possibly 2 seconds, and probably a mid to late pick or two

or do you aim at 4 or 5, which you could probably get for this years first and next years first?

and where is Flynn's stock if not signed by the draft...does he get more money now or after the draft?

 

[Poopy Pants]

The Packers resigned Finley, leaving the possibility of franchising Flynn to trade. The tag was between Flynn, Finley, and Wells. Finley is back, and the Packers don't want to give up $8 million to an undersized center. The likelihood of using the tag on Flynn is very high.

 

[sliqwill]

i havent seen anything on the Pack tagging Flynn, wouldnt that put him at like $8 or $10 million for the year?...

i saw the Finley deal, the only thing i can think of would be a tag and trade on Flynn?...if the Pack decides to retain the 'services' of Flynn, that would really cause a frenzy on the open market...

***

did some checking, looks like a franchise tag on a QB is a $16.4 million hit

 

[Poopy Pants]

i havent seen anything on the Pack tagging Flynn, wouldnt that put him at like $8 or $10 million for the year?...

i saw the Finley deal, the only thing i can think of would be a tag and trade on Flynn?...if the Pack decides to retain the 'services' of Flynn, that would really cause a frenzy on the open market...

***

did some checking, looks like a franchise tag on a QB is a $16.4 million hit

Read my first sentence. That is exactly what they would do. My guess is possibly to the Browns for #37. #4 and #22 might be too much to give up for RG3, so instead they could trade for Flynn, draft Blackmon, and the best available at #22.

Flynn/Blackmon/#22??? > RG3/#37???

 

[sliqwill]

you said possible tag, and i dont see anyone wanting to pick up a fairly inexperienced QB at $16.4 for a season...it would be quite impressive to turn their 7th rounder into a top 5 pick

i just dont see demand for Flynn at the tag price, unless the Pack is willing to take a hit on his salary as part of the trade...i could almost see someone 'sticking' it to the Packers on the cap by talking trade then letting him sit on the roster causing a cap hit to the Packers and screwing them over in Free Agent market...

ESPN and NFL Network were talking about that with Mike Wallace, where a team like Cincy, who is way under the cap, could offer big money, and either 'steal' Wallace for a late first, or by handicapping the Steelers in the FA market by 'forcing' the Steelers to pay though their nose to keep him...

 

[Poopy Pants]

you said possible tag, and i dont see anyone wanting to pick up a fairly inexperienced QB at $16.4 for a season...it would be quite impressive to turn their 7th rounder into a top 5 pick

i just dont see demand for Flynn at the tag price, unless the Pack is willing to take a hit on his salary as part of the trade...i could almost see someone 'sticking' it to the Packers on the cap by talking trade then letting him sit on the roster causing a cap hit to the Packers and screwing them over in Free Agent market...

ESPN and NFL Network were talking about that with Mike Wallace, where a team like Cincy, who is way under the cap, could offer big money, and either 'steal' Wallace for a late first, or by handicapping the Steelers in the FA market by 'forcing' the Steelers to pay though their nose to keep him...

Read my first sentence again. Two times now you didn't read it.

And you apparently don't know how tag and trades work. The team that trades for a tagged player will renegotiate the contract to make it long term and for less per season. No team is going to trade for a tagged player without giving them a long term deal, and ultimately, that is what the player is looking for anyways.

 

[sliqwill]

i ask you this...if you were offered $16.4 million for 1 year of work, would you take a 4 year deal for likely $25-$32 million or would you wait a year and look for a new deal?

also if they couldnt work a trade, they are now paying their backup twice as much as their starter...

 

[Poopy Pants]

i ask you this...if you were offered $16.4 million for 1 year of work, would you take a 4 year deal for likely $25-$32 million or would you wait a year and look for a new deal?

also if they couldnt work a trade, they are now paying their backup twice as much as their starter...

It won't be a 4 year, $25-32 million contract, so what you are proposing is inaccurate to judge. It will likely be a 5-6 year contract worth $45-50 plus. My bet is on the plus.

So would I take that or a one year contract worth $16? I would take the long term deal. Hell, even if your proposal was accurate, I would take that over the one year as well. Why? Because I could get injured in that one season and be fucked. That is why most player's dislike being franchised. They would rather have a long term deal.

 

[sffanmike25]

Interesting discussion. I see where both of you are coming from on this stuff. In short:

Jason is basically saying that if a team engaged the Packers in pre-tag talk in order to get Green Bay to use the tag on Flynn late in the process, then changed course and left Green Bay holding the bag with a permanent tag designation on a backup making more money than Rodgers in 2012. Technically, it's illegal to even talk before the tag is given out, but you only get punished for tampering or anything of that nature if you are in San Francisco or Detroit. So it's cool for everyone else. But since GB is high profile, they could probably whine and get the league on whoever pulled something shady.

Jameson is basically referencing what occurred most recently in the Matt Cassel deal. If a team is willing to pony up the pick to do a tag and trade deal, they'll likely make it lucrative enough in multiple years (for more guaranteed money they can spread out, I.E. Cassel in KC). It works better for both sides. Any team would not agree to at least some kind of handshake behind the scenes kind of a deal with the player's agent and then get screwed after the fact not being able to agree on terms.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000...up-trade-of-flynn-?module=HP11_headline_stack
But for the record, the Packers are leaning away from this.