After The Draft - Predicting the 2014 NFL Rookie Premiere

[WestCoastSkinsFan]

The NFL Draft has a huge impact on the hobby. The draft position of players shapes products for a full year, and much of that comes from the 2014 NFL Rookie Premiere. Who attends? Who gets skipped? What group break teams will be hot for the year? We're likely looking at 40 players, very heavy on skill positions. We only had two defensive players in 2013, NONE in 2012, and two in 2011. Occasionally, you get a random OT in there too, but it's very heavy on QB, RB, WR and TE.

We'll likely get confirmation of this shortly, but I'd like to wager a guess as to the 40 players that will be dominating our breaks shortly.

Logan Thomas - QB, Arizona
Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta
Sammy Watkins - WR, Buffalo
Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina
Ka'Deem Carey - RB, Chicago
Jeremy Hill - RB, Cincinnati
Johnny Manziel - QB, Cleveland
Terrance West - RB, Cleveland
Cody Lattimer - WR, Denver
Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit
Davante Adams - WR, Green Bay
Jadeveon Clowney - DE, Houston
Tom Savage - QB, Houston
Donte Moncrief - WR, Indianapolis
Blake Bortles - QB, Jacksonville
Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville
Allen Robinson - WR, Jacksonville
De'Anthony Thomas - WR/RB/KR, Kansas City
Jarvis Landry - WR, Miami
Teddy Bridgewater - QB, Minnesota
Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, New England
Odell Beckham - WR, New York (Giants)
Andre Williams - RB, New York (Giants)
Jace Amaro - TE, New York (Jets)
Khalil Mack - LB, Oakland
Derek Carr - QB, Oakland
Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia
Josh Huff - WR, Philadelphia
Dri Archer - RB/KR, Pittsburgh
Martavis Bryant - WR, Pittsburgh
Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco
Bruce Ellington - WR, San Francisco
Paul Richardson - WR, Seattle
Greg Robinson - OT, St. Louis
Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis
Michael Sam - LB, St. Louis
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay
Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE, Tampa Bay
Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay
Bishop Sankey - RB, Tennessee

Obviously, this would be a little different than previous years. We haven't seen a OT at the Premiere in a good number of years. Since Jason Smith, if memory serves. But Greg Robinson is a top pick with big upside, so I think he may attend. We pass on some relatively early picks (Jerick McKinnon in the 3rd at RB, but stuck behind Adrian Peterson) and we get a few defensive names in there with Mack and Clowney. And we have some big market teams without attendees. Dallas and Washington get skunked. But I think the big surprise this year is Sam.

Would it be crazy to have a 7th round pick at the Premiere? Under most circumstances, yes. But this was a landmark event. His jersey is blowing up sales charts. People are going to be interested.

Will it brew controversy if it happens? Absolutely. But I'll say it now: if it doesn't happen, it's a big miss in terms of business. And this stuff doesn't happen just for fun, this is a venture to make money in the long run.

Personally, I think this list will be pretty close to reality, and I think it's the right call. Michael Sam might not have a huge impact in terms of play (but who knows! Look at the list of former SEC Defensive Players of the Year), but his impact is big regardless.

 

[Breaker4310]

Sounds about right to me my as a Panthers fan I don't see Kelvin going. Hope I am wrong but I figure he has to do something big before card companies notice. So later in the year I may pick up my team

 

[WestCoastSkinsFan]

Sounds about right to me my as a Panthers fan I don't see Kelvin going. Hope I am wrong but I figure he has to do something big before card companies notice. So later in the year I may pick up my team

I'd be willing to make a wager that he's in. Second round pick with a no one in front of him to stop him from getting a starting role? I'd say he's about a 99% iron-clad lock.

Not looking at any figures on this, but I'd also be willing to wager that NO second round skill position player has ever been left out.

 

[WestCoastSkinsFan]

Interestingly, a list has been leaked, but I'm not sure it's final. I won't post anything yet, but it looks like I came very close. Looking like no Michael Sam at the moment though. AND it's only 36 players instead of 40.

 

[WestCoastSkinsFan]

So, it's been a while and the Premiere has come and gone. One VERY big surprise. Let's recap, starting with the correct guesses...

Attended:

Logan Thomas - QB, Arizona
Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta
Sammy Watkins - WR, Buffalo
Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina
Ka'Deem Carey - RB, Chicago
Jeremy Hill - RB, Cincinnati
Johnny Manziel - QB, Cleveland
Terrance West - RB, Cleveland
Cody Lattimer - WR, Denver
Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit
Davante Adams - WR, Green Bay
Jadeveon Clowney - DE, Houston
Tom Savage - QB, Houston
Donte Moncrief - WR, Indianapolis
Blake Bortles - QB, Jacksonville
Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville
Allen Robinson - WR, Jacksonville
De'Anthony Thomas - WR/RB/KR, Kansas City
Jarvis Landry - WR, Miami
Teddy Bridgewater - QB, Minnesota
Jimmy Garoppolo - QB, New England
Odell Beckham - WR, New York (Giants)
Andre Williams - RB, New York (Giants)
Khalil Mack - LB, Oakland
Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia
Dri Archer - RB/KR, Pittsburgh
Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco
Paul Richardson - WR, Seattle
Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay
Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE, Tampa Bay
Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay
Bishop Sankey - RB, Tennessee

No huge surprised here, but I was happy to hit on a few. Things like Archer, Williams and Freeman going, but McKinon not, for example. But my big reaches didn't come through.


Predicted, did NOT attend:

Jace Amaro - TE, New York (Jets)

I was pretty surprised to not see Amaro on the list. A second round skill position player is usually a slam dunk. I was able to find one or two similar situations where a second round TE didn't make it, but still a little odd.

Derek Carr - QB, Oakland

This one was a complete shocker. I still can't find the exact reason that Carr did not attend, but a second round QB not going to the Premiere is completely unheard of. I'm assuming it was a personal matter, but this came out of left field. All early indicators (and even a "leaked" list) had him attending, but he was mysteriously gone come the final list. This one could be painful for card companies not too far down the road as he could very well be starting soon, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a push for a pre-season jersey or two to work him deeper into some products.

Josh Huff - WR, Philadelphia

Another pretty surprising omission. My only guess is that with another WR in front of him for this draft, he got lost in the shuffle. But a third round WR playing for his college coach in the pros? That sounds like potential to me.

Martavis Bryant - WR, Pittsburgh

Probably the among the least surprising people to not attend from my list. Fourth rounders at the Premiere aren't unheard of, but they're also no lock. I thought that the lack of bodies in front of him may help, but alas, no dice.

Bruce Ellington - WR, San Francisco

Again, a bit of a stretch here on my end. Sort of the same theory as Bryant: a popular team and little competition in front of him. Not a shocker.

Greg Robinson - OT, St. Louis

I thought the OT curse would be broken here, I really did. If he doesn't make it, and the #1 overall pick didn't last year, I can't imagine we'll ever see another OT at the Premiere, barring some sort of Michael Oher type celebrity going extremely high in the draft.

Michael Sam - LB, St. Louis

Though I know he'll be in plenty of products, I think this was a mistake by the people running the show. Sam is a player in demand, and this is a business venture. People want his cards. Level of play aside, not including a player who broke a major barrier may be questioned later. But, to be fair, his inclusion ALSO would have been questioned. Tough to win here, but I'd side with the money and the history.

In-all, missing seven isn't crazy. Amaro, Huff and Sam not going were surprising, but Carr was astounding.


Attended, did not predict:

This is where things start going crazy. I can understand missing on some of these, but a few of these were so out-of-left-field that I just couldn't believe it.

Tajh Boyd - QB, New York (Jets)

This was a strange inclusion. Apparently, they're completely terrified of missing on a QB. A sixth rounder with two potential starters in front of him? This reeks of a wasted spot.

Brandin Cooks - WR, New Orleans

This was just my error. I somehow missed him when I was going over the first round. An obvious inclusion, easily should have been in over Bryant or Ellington, who I listed in my prediction.

AJ McCarron - QB, Cincinnati

A fifth round pick with a little more name recognition is a little more acceptable, especially with Dalton as a question mark not too far down the road when his contract is up, but this still feels like a reach. For reference, the last few QBs I could find drafted in the fifth round? TJ Yates, Nathan Enderle, John Skelton and Jonathan Crompton. Yeah, I'm sure people are lining up for their stuff.

Aaron Murray - QB, Kansas City

All aboard the QB train! See above, same commentary.

Kevin Pierre-Louis - LB, Seattle
Connor Shaw - QB, Cleveland
Khyri Thornton - DL, Green Bay
Asa Watson - TE, New England
Avery Williamson - LB, Titans

Uh... okay. A fourth round LB, an UNDRAFTED QB, a third round DT, an UNDRAFTED TE and a fifth round LB. I understand that these guys played at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, but let's get real here. Mid-round LBs and a DT? Undrafted players? Can you imagine if these are your box hits? I might lose my mind. They bumped up the players in the Premiere from 40 to 42 to add these two guys? Now granted, if they somehow hit it big with one of these guys, everyone involved looks like a genius. BUT, imagine Mr. Watson isn't on a team by the time training camp rolls around, yet they take up spots in box breaks all year. Heads will roll.

This is going to be one crazy experiment, but I just hope that it's not folks involved in the hobby that pay the price if things go wrong.

 

[Breaker4310]

I see me pulling a Carr before a Manziel . Probably multiple Carrs be just like my Joe Adams and Luke Kuechly 10-1 odds